Looking Ahead: Discussing the Threat of Climate Change

 

Climate change is a global phenomenon that threatens humankind (IPCC 2014), the availability of water, and therefore the stability of basin relations (Treszkai 2018). It refers to an extended change in climate patterns and variability (IPCC 2014). Climate variability refers to short-term changes in weather patterns (Kolawole et al 2016).

 

Africa bears the brunt of climate change and climatic variability (Schaeffer et al 2013) and weather patterns are already becoming variable (Sachs 2009). Over time, the impacts of climate change will become increasingly pronounced (Kolawole et al 2016).

 

Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of weather events in the Okavango Basin (Kgathi et al 2013). Rising surface temperatures increase evapotranspiration, decreasing river runoff in the Okavango (Labat et al 2004; Kgathi et al 2013). River flow will become more variable, and the single wet season (which runs from March to October) may shorten due to changing precipitation patterns in the region (Hughes et al 2011; Jury 2010; Folwell and Farqhuarson 2006). 

Moreover, higher average annual temperatures mean the wet season runoff peaks will disappear, reducing flows to the Okavango Delta (Hughes et al 2011). The ecology of the Delta is highly vulnerable to decreased river flow, threatening the wetlands and endangering rare species of flora and fauna. Wider socio-economic impacts arise through decreased tourism (Folwell and Farqhuarson 2006; Ashton 2000).

 

A lot of uncertainty exists around specific climate changes, but water sources will be sensitive to changing climates (Folwell and Farqhuarson 2006).

 

Agriculture is also sensitive to weather changes (Pande and Akermann 2008; Altieri and Koohafkan 2008; Bryceson 2002; Ellis and Allison 2004). In rural Botswana, riparian livelihoods are connected to the Okavango; fishing, tourism, arable and livestock farming practices, and basket making are crucial for supporting rural communities (Kgathi and Motsholapheko 2011; Kgathi et al 2013; Motsholapheko et al 2012b). People are made vulnerable due to their dependence on at-risk livelihoods, limited technology, and smallholder production methods (Mutekwa 2009). Climatic shocks (unexpected climate-related events) are predicted to increase, for example, droughts and flood events (Pearce et al 1989; Ellis 2000). Their impact will depend on household and community resilience (Martin and Bargawi 2005). Climate change in the Okavango Basin threatens to increase poverty, decrease economic growth, and reduce human welfare (Kolawole et al 2016).

 

 

What Does This Mean?

 

OKACOM must integrate climate change adaptation policies into basin management (Bybee 2014). Members need to work together, as transboundary cooperation is key for the sustainable management of natural resources, and poverty alleviation (Mogomotsi et al 2020; Bybee 2014).

 

But all is not lost. In the Okavango Delta, flood-recession farming practices mean households plough fields in rain-fed conditions when moisture is available (Motsholapheko et al 2012a). Rural communities must utilise their indigenous knowledge of farming systems to adapt alongside the changing climate (Dougill et al 2010; Mogotsi et al 2011).

 

Rural communities will continue to build new, resilient methods of adaptation to ensure their future in the Okavango, but will international governments be able to mirror their efforts?

 

Bibliography

 

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Online links are not available for all references.