Water, Africa, Conflict?


This blog series has examined the potential for conflict over the Cubango-Okavango River Basin, between Angola, Namibia and Botswana. Water is “blue gold” (Treszkai 2018, 11) meaning that competition over the increasingly scarce resource has the potential to lead to conflict. Over 6 blog posts, I have detailed potential causes of water-related conflict, examined a case study in the Basin, and outlined the legislation put in place to manage the Cubango-Okavango. Lastly, I looked ahead to climate change threats for the basin.

 

All of this was to examine the question:

 

Will there be conflict over water in Africa?

 

Various answers to this question exist. There is a belief that diminishing water resources will trigger serious conflict (Rosegrant 1997; Smith and Al-Rawahy 1990; Gleick 1993; Ohlsson 1995; Homer-Dixon and Percival 1996). ‘Water wars’ ideology assumes that communities and governments will have little choice but to use conflict as a response to resource competition. The UN also warned of the mounting impacts of climate change on water resources, signalling the “potential for serious conflict over water” (Barnaby 2009, 282; UN World Water Development 2009). 

  

Others believe that water won’t be directly responsible for war in Africa, but it may contribute to regional instability (Ashton 2000b; Sadoff and Grey 2002). This foregrounds OKACOM’s long-term focus on sustainable and equitable water (Ashton 2002). If the risk of conflict is expected to increase, coping mechanisms must be strengthened to buffer the risk of conflict in regions sharing transboundary resources (Ashton 2002; 2000a). 

 

In reality, countries do not go to war over water. ‘Water wars’ are a myth (Delli Priscoli 1998). Instead, trade and international agreements (such as OKACOM) reduce the risk of violent conflict (Barnaby 2009). The establishment of OKACOM has been widely successful, impacting peace and regional stability (OKACOM 2018). Barnaby further outlines the concept of ‘virtual’ or ‘embedded’ water, acquired through the import of water-intensive foods to balance water shortages (Allan 2000). Fruit, and other similar exports, require vast amounts of water to produce. Arid countries, such as Namibia and Botswana, rely on imported food, allowing them to conserve water used to cultivate crops (Allan 2005). Trade can therefore cushion the inevitability of war, and when coupled with international agreements, it means that the implications for conflict are less imminent (Barnaby 2009). 

 

Overcoming water scarcity issues within the basin requires socially and environmentally viable solutions, that do not compromise the ecological integrity of the Okavango Delta. This requires a shared understanding of the responsibilities each basin state possesses (Ashton 2000b).


One of the important reasons for maintaining peace within the ORB is highlighted below: 

 


 

Figure 1: A Youtube Video highlighting the ecological importance of the Okavango Ecosystem. (Source: National Geographic 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJOauAzV2kQ).

 

To conclude this blog series, it is important to stress that while water is a source of tension, and will continue to be, due to population and climate change pressures, it can also foster cooperation (Mogomotsi et al 2020). Water-related cooperation is likely to continue in the Okavango Basin, where OKACOM will continue to respond to the changing needs and demands of Angola, Namibia and Botswana’s citizens (OKACOM 2018). 

 

 

 

 

Bibliography:

 

Allan, A. J. (2000) The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the global economy, London, UK: Bloomsbury Publishing.

 

Allan, J.A. (2005) ‘Water in the environment/socio-economic development discourse: sustainability, changing management paradigms and policy responses in a global system’, Government and Opposition, 40, 2, 181-199.

 

Ashton, P.J. (2000a) ‘Southern African Water Wars: Are they inevitable or preventable?’, in H, Soloman and A, Turton. (eds.) Water Wars: Enduring Myth or Impending Reality? Africa Monologue Series NO. 2, Durban, South Africa: ACCORD, 62-105. 


Ashton, P.J. (2000b) ‘Water security for multi-national river basin states: The special case of the Okavango River’, in M, Fallkenmark and J, Lundqvist. (eds.) Proceedings of the Symposium on ‘Water Security for Multi-National River Basin States, Opportunity for Development’, Stockholm International Water Institute Report No 8, 110-121.

 

Ashton, P.J. (2002) ‘Avoiding Conflicts over Africa’s Water Resources’, Ambio, 31, 3, 236-242.

 

Barnaby, W. (2009) ‘Do Nations go to War over Water?’, Nature, 458, 282-283.

 

Delli Priscoli, J. (1998) ‘Water and civilisation: Conflict, cooperation and the roots of a new eco-realism’, Proceedings of the Eight Stockholm World Water Symposium, Stockhom, Sweden.

 

Gleick, P.H. (1993) ‘Water and conflict: fresh water resources and internal security’, International Security, 18, 1, 85-117.


Percival, V. and Homer-Dixon, T. (1996) 'Environmental scarcity and violent conflict: The case of Rwanda', The Journal of Environment & Development, 5, 3, 270-291.

 

Mogomotsi, G.E.J; P.K, Mogomotsi and K, Mosepele. (2020) ‘Legal aspects of transboundary water management: An analysis of the intergovernmental institutional arrangements in the Okavango River Basin’, Leiden Journal of International Law, 33, 391-408.

 

National Geographic. (2022) Protecting the Okavango Ecosystem. January 19, 2022, Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJOauAzV2kQ (Accessed 07/01/2024). 

 

Ohlsson, L. (1995) ‘The role of water and the origins of conflict’, in L, Ohlsson. (ed.) Hydropolitics: Conflicts Over Water as a Development Constraint, London: Zed Publishers. 

 

OKACOM. (2018) ‘Lessons Learnt in 20 Plus Years of Experience’, OKACOM Report, Available at: https://www.okacom.org/sites/default/files/publications/LessonsLearntin20YearsofExistence.pdf (Accessed 06/01/2024). 

 

Rosegrant, M.W. (1997) Water Resources in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges and Implications for Action, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

 

Sadoff, C.W, and D, Grey. (2002) ‘Beyond the river: the benefits of cooperation on international rivers’, Water Policy, 4, 5, 389-403.

 

Smith, S.E, and M, Al-Rawahy. (1990) ‘The Blue Nile: Potential for Conflict and alternatives for meeting future demands’, Water International, 15, 217-222.

 

Treszkai, Á. (2018) ‘General Overview of the Consequences of African Water Conflicts’, UKH Journal of Social Sciences, 2, 2, 11-18.

  

UN World Water Development. (2009) Water in a Changing World, (WWW) Available online at: www.unesco-wwap.org/wwdr3/mediakit/documents/WWDR3%20low%20res.pdf (Accessed 03/01/2024).

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