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Water, Africa, Conflict?

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This blog series has examined the potential for conflict over the Cubango-Okavango River Basin, between Angola, Namibia and Botswana. Water is “ blue gold” (Treszkai 2018, 11 ) meaning that competition over the increasingly scarce resource has the potential to lead to conflict. Over 6 blog posts, I have detailed potential causes of water-related conflict, examined a case study in the Basin, and outlined the legislation put in place to manage the Cubango-Okavango. Lastly, I looked ahead to climate change threats for the basin.   All of this was to examine the question:   Will there be conflict over water in Africa?   Various answers to this question exist. There is a belief that diminishing water resources  will   trigger serious conflict ( Rosegrant 1997 ;  Smith and Al-Rawahy 1990 ; Gleick 1993; Ohlsson 1995; Homer-Dixon and Percival 1996 ). ‘Water wars’ ideology assumes that communities and governments will have little choice but to use conflict as a response to resource competition.
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Looking Ahead: Discussing the Threat of Climate Change

  Climate change is a global phenomenon that threatens humankind ( IPCC 2014 ), the availability of water, and therefore the stability of basin relations ( Treszkai 2018 ). It refers to an extended change in climate patterns and variability ( IPCC 2014 ). Climate variability refers to short-term changes in weather patterns ( Kolawole et al 2016 ).   Africa bears the brunt of climate change and climatic variability (Schaeffer et al 2013) and weather patterns are already becoming variable (Sachs 2009). Over time, the impacts of climate change will become increasingly pronounced ( Kolawole et al 2016 ).   Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of weather events in the Okavango Basin ( Kgathi et al 2013 ). Rising surface temperatures increase evapotranspiration, decreasing river runoff in the Okavango (Labat et al 2004; Kgathi et al 2013 ). River flow will become more variable, and the single wet season (which runs from March to October) may shorten due to changing precip
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Avoiding Conflict: Cooperation

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  Effective management of rivers has been a historical pursuit of humans and nation-states. Socio-economic and political aims underpin the control and ownership of flowing water, imbuing countries with economic opportunities, national security, society and culture ( Sadoff and Grey 2002 ).    Today, effective management of rivers is often underpinned by ratified agreements concerning international water resources. Formal institutions uphold these agreements, which are critical for the reduction of the risk of conflict ( Barnaby 2009 ). Regional strength and trust generate peaceful solutions to water-based tensions, though this is historically uneasy due to competing national interests ( Bybee 2014 ).    Challenges arise through the trade-off between economic benefits (eg river development projects) and environmental conservation ( Sadoff and Grey 2002 ).    OKACOM   The Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission (OKACOM) is an institution that reduces the risk of conflict and ensu
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Tracing Flows of Discontent in the Okavango Basin

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My third blog post applies the principles covered in the previous posts to an analysis of the Okavango.    Namibia is the driest country in Africa ( Meissner 2000 ), and is one of the most arid countries in the world (Day 1997; Ashley et al 1995 ; Buenfil 2000 ), meaning that humans and ecosystems increasingly need to compete for water supplies ( McCarthy and Ellery 1998 ;  Ashton and Neal 2003 ;  Mbaiwa 2004 ). During a period of intense drought in two consecutive seasons between 1994 and 1996, a pipeline was proposed to provide the city of Windhoek with sufficient water ( Alao 2007 ; Day 1997).  The Proposal: The proposed pipeline would abstract water from the Okavango at Rundu, linking to the Eastern National Water Carrier in Grootfontein (Ashton and Manley 1999; Mbaiwa 2004 ). For Namibia, the pipeline represented insurance against future droughts, as it could extract 17.5 million m3/year from the Okavango. The Department of Water Affairs (DWA) undertook a feasibility study
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